The Running Estimate board developed by CH (CPT) Daniel Kim and SPC Matt Wagner, Religious Affairs Specialist, during a rotation at JMRC to track UMT activities

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During an operation you may have heard the term: Running Estimate.  What’s that you ask?  No, it is not estimating your ability to pass  the next PT test.  According to ADP 5-0 on the Operation Process, a Running Estimate is the:

…CONTINUOUS ASSESSMENT of the current situation used to determine if the current operation is proceeding according to the commander’s intent and if planned future operations are supportable.

ADP 5-0, para 61.

Basically, what information does my Commander need to know about what’s happening right now in order to be successful in an Operation? 

For example, imagine you are the Assistant (Staff) to the Wedding Coordinator (the Commander) during a Wedding (the Operation) and you already had a plan (MDMP). The Running Estimate answers what is happening RIGHT NOW that the Coordinator needs to know in order to be successful?  You might want to keep a close eye on the status of the flowers or who, if anyone, was missing from the wedding party and when the officiant was on ground.  You would also want to know the status of the food and the status if the decorations were done right. 

Now you might have come up with a solid plan beforehand.  It might have been dummy proof.  But in combat it is said that no plan survives first contact.  So even if you’ve done a thousand operations, each one will have its own set of challenges because everyone gets a vote, especially the enemy. 

What kinds of information does the Battalion Commander need from the Chaplain?

Much of that will be mission dependent and you can ask your S3 or XO for details.  It also helps if you already know what kinds of information the boss wants to know.  But the following are some examples of possible Running Estimate items that would help in an operation.

• Phases of the Battle
• Current/Upcoming Religious Holidays
• Unit Ministry
  • When was the last time the UMT visited each Company/Platoon?
  • Counseling Trends
  • Status of Equipment
  • Number of Soldiers belonging to Low Density Faith Groups (Ask S1 for an Ad Hoc Query/Religious Preference Profiles)
  • Last 24-hours
  • Next 24-hours
• Terrain/Weather:
  • How does terrain/weather impact Religious Support?
• Friendly Forces:
  • Status of sister BN Chaplains, coverage Chaplains, order of succession
• Civilian Considerations:
  • Civilian community religious leaders
  • Religious infrastructure
    • Worship Centers
    • Cemeteries
  • Religious Holidays
  • Religious Groups in operation in the AO

How do I create a Running Estimate?

A Running Estimate can be a digital product, however, in an operation the Chaplain will not likely have access to a computer.  What is more effective would be a small WHITE BOARD because the situation is always changing and will be in constant need of updating. 

During a rotation at JRMC, my Religious Affairs Specialist and I would regularly meet to update our board and it would be the center piece by which we would make our plans for the day or would be a great way to review the day.  This creates a Common Operating Picture (COP) for both you and your Religious Affairs Specialist so that both of you remain informed.  And it is from this COP that you will advise your Commander.

Additionally, this board can also easily be implemented in Garrison ministry.  You can track counseling trends, religious faith groups, upcoming events, status of equipment, etc.  Basically, the Running Estimate is a great tool to stay current with what’s happening.  It is also important to note that this needs to be in line with the plans process meaning that you should be integrated in the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) process.   

References

ADP 5-0 – The Operations Process
FM 6-0, CH 8 – Commander and Staff Organization and Operations